Is the creative agency market actually growing in 2026?
Quick answer
Despite headlines full of restructures and AI panic, independent agency owners are reporting that business is picking up - and the numbers partly back that up. The IPA Bellwether Q2 2026 report put UK marketing budgets at a net balance of +6.9%, the second highest reading in two years, with adspend forecast to grow 2.1% across 2026. But the money is not flowing evenly. WPP’s Q1 revenue fell 6.6% year on year, with revenue less pass-through costs from its top 25 clients down 9.4%. There is more budget available in the market. The agencies benefiting are the ones whose account managers spot the second and third project inside an existing client, and whose project managers deliver it without the margin leaking away. This blog covers what the data shows and four practical takeaways from my conversation with Brett Harned on the Creative Agency Account Manager podcast.
Something I keep hearing on calls with independent agency owners: business has been picking up.
That does not match the headlines, which are full of restructures and AI panic. So I checked the numbers, then put the whole thing to Brett Harned on the podcast this week. Brett helps agencies formalise their account and project management teams, and he is my co-host for the AM:PM event in Atlanta in September.
The picture that emerged was more nuanced than either the optimistic anecdotes or the anxious headlines suggest.
What do the latest marketing budget figures actually show?
UK marketing budgets were revised up again in Q2 2026. The IPA Bellwether report, published on 16 July, put the net balance at +6.9%, the second highest reading in two years. Nearly a quarter of companies increased their spend against 16.9% cutting. Adspend is forecast to grow 2.1% across 2026.
That does not mean every agency is benefiting.
WPP’s Q1 results tell a different story. Revenue fell 6.6% year on year. Revenue less pass-through costs from its top 25 clients fell 9.4%, following 7% growth in Q1 2025. WPP attributed the decline partly to previous account losses.
There is more money available in the market. It is not flowing evenly across the agency landscape. The agencies winning are those whose teams are set up to spot and convert the opportunity when it arrives.
What does Brett Harned’s perspective add?
Brett has spent years helping agencies separate and formalise their account management and project management functions. His view is grounded in what he actually sees inside agencies, not what people post on LinkedIn. That distinction matters, because the gap between the two can be significant.
Here are four things that came out of our conversation.
What are the four practical takeaways for agency account and project managers?
1. Nobody is as far ahead on AI as they are implying
AI adoption inside agencies is less advanced than LinkedIn makes it look. Brett and I both see different adoption levels inside the same agency, never mind across the industry. As Brett put it: “The biggest risk isn’t choosing the wrong tool. It’s building no AI muscle at all.”
Comparing your progress with what other people claim online is rarely useful. Most agencies are figuring this out as they go, and that is fine.
2. Ask the judgement question about every repeated task
Take a task you do every week. Ask how AI could help with it. Then ask the better question: which parts of this task need judgement, and what do you need to stay involved in for the quality to remain consistent?
Automate the rest. But do not take yourself out of the parts that require your experience, your knowledge of the client, or your reading of the situation.
3. A defensive brief can become a growth conversation
A design agency Brett works with has been asked by a client to explain why human design work is stronger than AI output. Most agencies would treat that as an uncomfortable question to bat away. Brett’s point is that it is an opportunity. That presentation - done well - gives account and business development teams a clearer, more confident way to talk about where AI genuinely helps and where human judgement still matters.
The pressure behind that question is real. Dollar Shave Club now produces 90% of its advertising in-house, using AI for execution while keeping concept and judgement human. Clients are thinking about this. The agencies that engage the question directly, rather than defensively, are the ones that will keep the conversation going.
4. Account managers and project managers optimise for different things
Account managers protect the relationship. Project managers protect delivery. Owners protect profitability. In Brett’s experience, clearly separated roles lead to better delivery and a more deliberate approach to account growth. But he is clear that structure depends on the agency, the work it does, and its stage of growth. There is no universal answer.
What is consistent is this: winning the work and growing it are different jobs, and conflating them costs agencies money and clarity.
What does this mean for agency account management right now?
When clients have budget to spend, the agencies that benefit are the ones whose account managers spot the second and third project inside an existing relationship, and whose project managers deliver it without the profit margin leaking away.
That depends far more on how the two roles are set up than on which AI tools the agency has bought.
If you take one thing from this: ask Brett’s judgement question this week about a task you repeat regularly. Work out which parts need you, and which parts do not.
Summary
UK marketing budgets are rising - the IPA Bellwether Q2 2026 report recorded a net balance of +6.9%, with adspend forecast to grow 2.1% across 2026. But the growth is uneven: WPP’s Q1 revenue fell 6.6% year on year. The agencies capturing the opportunity are those with account managers who can spot growth inside existing client relationships and project managers who can deliver without margin erosion. On AI, the advice from Brett Harned is straightforward: the risk is not choosing the wrong tool, it is building no capability at all. Apply judgement to what you automate, and stay involved in the parts that require it.
FAQ
Is the agency market actually growing in 2026?
In the UK, marketing budgets are rising. The IPA Bellwether Q2 2026 report put the net balance at +6.9%, the second highest reading in two years, with adspend forecast to grow 2.1% across 2026. But the growth is not evenly distributed. Larger agency groups like WPP reported a 6.6% revenue decline in Q1, partly due to previous account losses. Independent agencies with strong account management practices appear better positioned to benefit from the available spend.
What is Brett Harned’s view on AI adoption in agencies?
That it is less advanced than LinkedIn suggests. Brett sees significant variation in AI adoption inside the same agency, let alone across the industry. His view is that the biggest risk for agencies is not choosing the wrong tool - it is failing to build any AI capability at all.
How should account managers think about using AI in their role?
Start with a task you repeat every week. Ask how AI could help with it. Then ask which parts of that task require your judgement, your knowledge of the client, or your reading of the room. Automate the rest. The risk is not using AI - it is removing yourself from the parts of the work that depend on your experience and insight.
What is the difference between what account managers and project managers do?
Account managers protect the client relationship and look for growth opportunities. Project managers protect delivery and keep the work on time and on budget. Owners protect profitability. When these roles are clearly separated, agencies tend to deliver better and grow more deliberately. The challenge is that many agencies conflate the roles, which creates confusion about accountability and often costs them margin.
Why does the Dollar Shave Club example matter for agencies?
Dollar Shave Club now produces 90% of its advertising in-house, using AI for execution while keeping concept and judgement human. It is an example of a client actively reducing what they buy from agencies in certain areas. Agencies that can clearly articulate where human judgement adds value - and where AI does not yet replicate it - are better placed to have that conversation with clients before it becomes a crisis.
What should agencies focus on to benefit from rising marketing budgets?
Getting their account and project management functions clearly defined. When budgets are available, the agencies that win are the ones whose account managers spot growth opportunities inside existing relationships, and whose project managers deliver without margin leaking away. That is a structural question as much as a skills question.
Brett and I are co-hosting AM:PM in Atlanta on 29-30 September, with David C. Baker joining us as featured speaker. It is 1.5 days on exactly this question: what should account and project management roles become? Early bird pricing ends 31 July.
